Robotics: humanoid robots & the companies building them
China's shipment forecasts keep getting revised upward — commercialization is moving faster than the banks modeled.
Every major bank revision on humanoid robot shipment and market-size forecasts, tracked chronologically. Updated as new analyst notes come out.
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026
What to watch next: With Unitree's IPO now behind us, attention shifts to Tesla's Optimus Gen 3/V3 mass-production launch (Tesla is targeting 50,000 units in 2026, up from 5,000 in 2025) and whether the 30-50 additional Chinese humanoid makers reportedly preparing Hong Kong listings can command similar multiples. Component suppliers Leaderdrive, Hengli Hydraulic, and Leadshine Technology are all scaling capacity in response to order volume, not just projected demand — a genuine supply-side confirmation signal worth more than another bank note alone.
The pattern of upward revisions within a single year suggests analysts are still catching up to real deployment speed rather than overestimating demand — worth checking back as new notes come out, since the trend so far has been consistently toward higher, not lower, numbers.
Nscale commits $3.5B in compute to humanoid maker Figure, takes equity stake
Announced September 3, cloud infrastructure firm Nscale signed a strategic partnership to provide Figure with an initial $3.5 billion of compute commitment, with intent to scale beyond $6 billion. The deal centers on deploying up to 100,000 Nvidia Vera Rubin GPUs, with initial capacity targeted for Barstow, Texas starting in the second half of 2027; Nscale also takes a strategic equity stake in Figure, currently valued at roughly $39 billion — among the highest in humanoid robotics. Compute-for-equity deals are becoming a preferred financing structure in physical AI, letting infrastructure providers buy into robotics upside without a traditional VC round — a structure worth watching replicate across the sector.
Source: Bloomberg / PYMNTS →