Is home renovation spending still growing in September 2026?

Yes, but growth has slowed. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies (LIRA) projected total homeowner remodeling spending at roughly $517 billion for Q3 2026, down slightly from an early-2026 record of about $524 billion, with year-over-year growth easing from 2.4% to around 1.9%. Meanwhile NAHB's Remodeling Market Index has stayed above the break-even level of 50 for 24 consecutive quarters, and big-box retailers Home Depot and Lowe's have both cut profit guidance as large discretionary DIY projects soften.

Home & DIY: smart homes are booming while renovation spending cools

The smart home market is on pace to nearly triple by 2033, even as big-box retailers report softer demand for big-ticket remodeling projects.

Quick take: The global smart home market is estimated at roughly $207.0 billion in 2026, up from $162.8 billion in 2025, and is projected to grow at a 23.1% CAGR through 2033 to reach about $887.4 billion — with security and access-control devices holding the largest share, over 31%, and the retrofit segment (adding smart tech to existing homes rather than new construction) accounting for 60.8% of the market. Renovation spending, meanwhile, is still near record levels but growth is clearly decelerating: Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies projects total homeowner remodeling spending easing from an early-2026 record of roughly $524 billion to about $517 billion by Q3 2026, as year-over-year growth slows from 2.4% to 1.9%. Home Depot and Lowe's both cut full-year profit guidance this fall, citing softer engagement on large, financed discretionary projects even as smaller, budget-conscious "Pro" contractor spending held up better than DIY. NAHB's Remodeling Market Index has still stayed above the break-even level of 50 for 24 straight quarters, and one structural driver keeps growing regardless of the cycle: the average US home is now 41 years old (up from 31 in 2006), which keeps baseline repair and system-replacement demand elevated no matter what happens to discretionary spending.

Related: Real Estate & Housing — how cooling home sales and rising inventory are shaping renovation demand →

Home Depot and Lowe's are quietly turning into B2B software platforms for contractors

Both chains are pivoting hard toward the professional-contractor "Pro" market — which Home Depot pegs at roughly $700 billion, with a broader specialty-distribution opportunity near $1.2 trillion. Lowe's is rolling out an AI quoting tool that converts handwritten notes and photos into quotes "within minutes," and its "Mylow Companion" AI system has already fielded millions of employee queries, while Home Depot leans on a "ship from best location" fulfillment system across 2,360+ stores and 1,300+ branches.

Source: PYMNTS →

Home Depot and Lowe's cut profit guidance as housing pressure squeezes big-ticket DIY

Lowe's trimmed its full-year adjusted operating margin outlook to 12.1%, and Home Depot's CEO Ted Decker said "consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand." Home Depot's big-ticket purchases grew just 2.3% and net income slipped 1.3% to $3.6 billion, while Lowe's net income fell 4.7% to $1.6 billion — both companies pointed specifically at softer engagement on large, financed discretionary renovation projects.

Source: Retail Dive →

Remodeling spending is still near record highs, but the growth curve is flattening

Harvard's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) forecasts homeowner improvement and repair spending easing from an early-2026 record of about $524 billion to roughly $517 billion by Q3 2026, with year-over-year growth cooling from 2.4% to 1.9% amid "sluggish housing starts and uncertainty in the broader economy." Even so, remodeling permit activity and single-family home sales are both trending upward, supporting stable — if slower — underlying demand.

Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies →

Aging homes and aging homeowners are reshaping what "remodeling" even means

NAHB's Remodeling Market Index has held above the break-even level of 50 for 24 consecutive quarters straight, and the number of remodeling firms has nearly doubled since 2000, from 69,000 to 128,000. A major driver: 56% of remodelers now do aging-in-place modification work, and 73% say client requests for aging-in-place features have "significantly or somewhat increased" over the past five years — a byproduct of the average US home now being 41 years old, up from 31 in 2006.

Source: NAHB →

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